Another vote for Abraham here.
They've shown they're willing to divert from the comic strip; however if they divert too far they're in danger of losing credibility and losing a lot of the viewership.
We already know it isn't Rick, Carl, or a female. (Btw imagine if it was Maggie, a dude battering a pregnant woman to death with a baseball bat on primetime TV ballsy)
I think there's only a few real candidates but just think they can afford to take out Abraham for several reasons the comic strip readers will understand and I won't spoil it for the TV-only viewers.